Zambian Elections 2008

Rupiah Banda (MMD) is the new President of Zambia. He's won the election by the narrowest of margins defeating Michael Sata by about 1% of the vote. Sata and his Patriotic Front party are now crying foul and claiming that the election has been stolen from them. Unfortunately The Post newspaper, once a bastion of impartiality, is adding fuel to what might turn out to be a nasty fire. Sata said before the election that he would only accept the outcome if he won! The danger is that he now tries to mobilise the popular support he has in the urban areas and causes civil disobedience. Zambia is a peaceful country with no history of violence and there is great respect for the rule of law. However, Sata is a dangerous populist and should he wish to he can organise and mobilise a dangerous level of support from the most disenfranchised people in Lusaka and across the Copperbelt. He has the support of many of the poorest people in the cities and one can just pray that Sata is moderate in the way in which he calls for action from his supporters.

One would hope that Mr Sata takes a step back and thinks before he opens his mouth. Unfortunately precedent would suggest that this won't be the case. Part of the problem is that Sata led in the early stages of the election process. The first constituencies to be declared after Thursday's election were those in the urban areas - PF strongholds - and thus Sata built a strong lead as results were returned. However, the MMD has great support in rural areas and these results were declared after the urban results. Thus Sata's lead was chipped away constituency by constituency until ultimately Banda overtook him and was declared the winner.

Part of Sata's problem is that in his arrogance he fails to appeal to a cross section of society in Zambia and cannot see that without appealing to voters across all provinces he cannot win the presidency. As in 2006 Sata has lost an election because he could not gain support in the countryside. Rather than face this reality Sata cries foul!

Had Sata been blessed with wisdom he wouldn't have broken off negotiations with Hakainde Hichilema and his UNPD party. HH, as he is fondly known, about a third of the vote - mainly in his stronghold of Southern Province. Evidently had Sata and HH reached an electoral pact then one of them may well have secured the presidency. One can only speculate what happened behind closed doors but one suspects that HH knows that his day may well come whilst Sata, a man in his seventies already, was in his last chance saloon as far as the presidency is concerned. The fact that Hichilema can secure a third of the vote from the third party certainly suggests that he may well become the 'Obama' of Zambian politics.

One hopes that Rupiah Banda will continue the legacy of Levi Mwanawasa. The fact that he was the Vice President and from the same political party bodes well for a level of continuity. Let's hope that his critics, and particularly Sata and the Post newspaper, are willing to work with him to secure a brighter future for all Zambians.

The Post has particularly disappointed me during this election campaign. Their reporting has been subtly partisan and anti Banda. They have persisted in referring to him by his first name, whilst referring to Sata by his surname, which is clearly disrespectful in Zambian society. They have made accusation after accusation against Banda's character on the word of witnesses as reliable as those who testified against Christ. In the interest of unity and peace one hopes that the Post will now give Rupiah Banda a chance to govern. The Post has a history of keeping Zambian politicians 'on their toes' and one hopes that they continue to do so in the interest of the people of Zambia but in a non partizan and unbiased way.

I write as one who subscribes to the Post and has long admired the role the newspaper has played in Zambian democracy but who has grown disheartened with the publication in recent months.

Finally I congratulate Rupiah Banda on his victory and pray for peace and prosperity for all Zambian people.

Zambian Elections 2006

Levy Mwanawasa has won the Zambian Presidential election - Thank God!

I'm actually not an MMD supporter. I feel that it's about time the party was rebranded. The Movement for Multi-party Democracy may have been an appropriate name when fighting to end Kaunda's one party state but it is dated now and demonstrates a lack of an underlying political philosophy. Having said that the Patriot Front and the UDA have no more of a political philosophy than the MMD.

In fact both of Mwanawasa's rivals (I know there were 5 candidates but only three of them hada cats chance in hell of winning!) have serious weaknesses. Hakainda Hichilema, of the UDA, is potentially Zambia's next President and that may well be a blessing. He has cut his teeth in the political scene and has made a huge impact in his campaign. The trouble is the UDA is a loose alliance of parties with no real direction. By the next election HH will have had time to build the party he wants to lead (afterall that's the way of African politics) and he may well win the mandate of the people. I just hope and pray that he doesn't cross to the MMD as so many others have done in the past. There is little political loyality in Zambian politics unfortunately and too many prominent politicians have 'sold out' in the past and changed their colours. Nevers Mumba, who ran for the Presidency in 2001 and was beaten by Levy Mwanawasa, joined the MMD shortly afterwards as Vice President! His sell out will live long in the memory. Not only did he sell out politically one might argue he sold his soul. A prominent Pentecostal Pastor he felt called by God to enter politics to serve his people. His service didn't last that long - he was in the running for the Presidency this time round as well but withdrew preferring to run next time! Please don't do the same HH!!!

The reason I'm glad Levy Mwanawasa won the election though is that Michael Sata lost. Sata is a thug of a man who has won much popular support in the urban areas of Zambia. He has a reputation and a 'doer' and his populist message of tax cuts and jobs creation has won him considerable support. Sata has even stated that there will be 'grave consequences' should he lose the election fraudulantly. The trouble is Sata will claim the election was rigged whatever happens. If we face facts he may well have a point. There will be irregularities in the voting procedure. It's inevitable - these things happen in most elections in the developing world. Despite any irregualrities though Mwanawasa would have won anyway. Unlike in 2001, when Anderson Mazoka was robbed by the outgoing president Frederick Chiluba, this time Mwanawasa has an awful lot of popular support and especially in the rural areas. SADC observers have said the election was fair and with Mwanawasa's sizable victory margin it appears unlikely that Sata has been robbed.

Only a couple of months ago I wanted Mwanawasa to lose the election. I was looking forward to Zambia being seen internationally as a true multi party democracy. An incumbant president defeated in a free and open election would have been fantastic for Zambia as a beacon of African politics. I changed my mind after spending most of August in Zambia and from following the election campaign in the Zambian and international press. The more I read about Sata, the more I read quotes from Sata - the more worried I became for the people of Zambia. 'King Cobra' definitely had a vemonous spit. I feared the end of multi party democracy if he was elected. Mussolini seems the aptess of nicknames.

So as Levy prepares for a second term I wish him well. I hope that he continues to fight corruption and that he has the courage to introduce the constitutional reform that Zambia desparately needs. I trust that he won't try to change the constitution to try to allow himself to contest a third term but that he oversees a modernisation of Zambia's system of election. In order to ensure fairness Zambia needs to do away with its first past the post system and repalce it with a system like that in DR Congo. Levy won only 28% of the vote in 2001 and even this time round he has only won just over 40% of the vote. A second round of voting would certainly reinforce the mandate given to the President.

Please govern with wisdom Mr President (and don't appoint one of your rivals as VP!!!)